This weekend the undefeated New Orleans Saints host division-rival Atlanta Falcons. The Saints are coming off a nail-biting 25-22 victory over the San Francisco 49ers, while the Falcons are fresh off a thumping of the Arizona Cardinals, 41-7. This will be a tough contest for both teams, and could set the tone for the division for the rest of the season. If the Saints are to win, here are the keys to victory.

Establishing the running game
The Saints have rushed for a paltry 64.5 yards per game this season. The lack of a running game has allowed defenses to key on the Saints vertical passing game, thus limiting Drew Brees to 245.5 yards passing per game, down from last year’s average of 292.5 yards per game. With speedster Reggie Bush out for the next six weeks with a broken leg, the Saints will have to focus its running game on the interior. The Saints will turn to Pierre Thomas and rookie Chris Ivory to shoulder the burden.

Win the turnover battle
This is a staple of football, but the Saints have capitalized on this so far. The Saints’ defense has forced three interceptions and two fumbles, and the offense has not turned the ball over yet. The Falcons’ defense has four interceptions, and recovered one fumble. The Saints’ first two games were against two turnover-prone quarterbacks in Brett Favre and Alex Smith. Matt Ryan does a better job of protecting the ball than those two, so the Saints will have to work harder to produce turnovers. Ryan’s favorite target this year has been Roddy White, who has a league-leading 20 catches for 189 yards (fifth highest yardage in the league). To force interceptions, the Saints could rotate free safety Malcolm Jenkins over the top for help.

Shut down the Falcons’ running attack
The Saints have allowed opponents to run for 116.5 yards per game, 20th in the NFL. Behind Michael Turner and Jason Snelling, the Falcons average 154.5 yards rushing per game, good for fourth in the league. If the Saints cannot effectively limit the Falcons’ rushing attack, the Falcons will be able to control the clock, keeping the Saints’ offense off the field. The Saints can use speedy linebacker Jonathan Vilma to shadow the line of scrimmage and contain Turner and Snelling.

The Saints defense has played well this year, but it will have to raise its game to the next level against the potent Falcons’ offense, while waiting for the offensive pyrotechnics that have been the trademark of the Sean Payton-era to emerge for the first time this season. Like the Saints’ first two victories this year, look for this to be a close game, but a Saints’ victory.

Prediction: Saints 28, Falcons 27

This week the New Orleans Saints square off against former NFC Division foe, the San Francisco 49ers. The Saints are coming off of a grinding 14-9 victory over the Vikings, while the 49ers look to rebound from a 31-6 loss to the Seahawks. To keep momentum heading into a week 3 matchup with the division rival Atlanta Falcons, the Saints will need to focus on three elements to win.

Establish the running game in the first half
Last week against the Vikings the Saints ran the ball only four times out of the first twenty-five plays. The Saints need to run the ball between the tackles with Pierre Thomas and spread the ball outside with Reggie Bush. This will draw the 49ers’ defense closer to the line of scrimmage, exposing the secondary to Drew Brees and the passing attack.

Defend close to the line of scrimmage
The Saints kept Adrian Peterson out of the end zone, but still surrendered 4.6 yards per carry. Pro Bowl running back Frank Gore will take advantage of the Saints’ weakness up front if the Saints don’t dominate the line of scrimmage. The Saints should move strong safety Roman Harper closer to the line of scrimmage to start the game.

The 49ers other main offensive option is tight end Vernon Davis. Brett Favre was able to hook up with tight end Visanthe Shiancoe for 76 yards and a touchdown, all coming deep down the middle of the field. Moving Roman Harper closer to the line of scrimmage to defend the run will allow Harper to provide coverage over the top to help middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma.

In addition to neutralizing Davis, putting more defenders closer to the line of scrimmage will limit 49ers quarterback Alex Smith’s effectiveness in the passing game. Of Smith’s 26 completions against the Seahawks, 19 of them were to running backs or tight ends. More defenders close to the line of scrimmage will force Smith to turn to his wide receivers.

Force Alex Smith to beat them
Smith is not fending off Shaun Hill or any other backups…yet. The 49ers’ wide receivers are lead by Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan, who combined for five catches and 44 yards. Clearly, Smith is not comfortable throwing the ball downfield, particularly against quality cornerbacks such as Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer. If Smith is forced to go to the air 40 times or more as he did against Seattle, he is likely to make costly mistakes.

The Saints’ smothering defense will neutralize the 49ers’ offense. Look for the Saints to open up a big lead and make the 49ers play from behind most of the game. Prediction: Saints 35, 49ers 10.

Last night’s 14-9 Saints’ victory didn’t have the fireworks and excitement of last year’s NFC Championship (except for the pre-game festivities), but provided insight into both teams. Brett Favre showed some of the rust from not practicing during the preseason. The Saints showed flashes of the offense that lead the NFL in total points and yards for the last two seasons. Here are a few other observations from the Saints’ victory.

Offensive imbalance
The Saints only ran the ball three times in the first half, but featured the running game more prominently in the second half. On its lone second-half touchdown drive, Pierre Thomas ran eight times for 31 yards and a touchdown. Thomas also picked up the key first down with less than two minutes remaining in the game to seal the victory. The Saints need to do a better job of running the ball in the first half. The Vikings did not put too many points on the board in the first half. However, on Minnesota’s touchdown drive it was clear the Saints’ defense was worn-down from being on the field for almost nine consecutive minutes. A tired defense allowed Adrian Peterson to pick up large chunks of yards at a time. Had the Vikings not given into the fear of Peterson fumbling in the fourth quarter, the game might have had a different outcome.

Division rivals the Falcons and Panthers both have strong running attacks, featuring Michael Turner and Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, respectively. Out of conference games against the 49ers, Steelers and Ravens should also concern the Saints. To ensure victory against these teams, the Saints will need to establish the run early. Veteran Mike Bell’s departure leaves a hole in the Saints’ inside running game, which means Pierre Thomas will have to carry more of the load, and Reggie Bush will have to take on a more aggressive running style, which he showed a flash of on his carry over left tackle last night.

Jermon Bushrod
Bushrod had a pretty good game, making Vikings defensive end Jared Allen a non-factor in the game (four tackles, one QB hit and no sacks). Early in the game the Saints moved tight ends and running backs to the left side to help Bushrod “chip” Allen to slow down his speed rush. As the game went on, the Saints moved players over fewer times to help him. Bushrod’s ability to protect Drew Brees’ blindside will be crucial to the Saints’ passing attack.

Passing attack well intact
Brees and his receivers picked up where they left off last season, particularly on the first drive. Brees connected with nine different receivers last night, eight of whom had at least two catches. Once the Saints establish the running game, drawing more defenders closer to the line of scrimmage, look for the passing game to go further down the field.

The Saints have a defense too
The Saints’ defense played well against the Vikings, holding Favre and company to under 253 yards of total offense. The Saints need to improve on defending the run, allowing Adrian Peterson to gain 4.6 yards per carry, but did well on forcing many three-and-outs.

The Saints’ next game is Monday, September 20th at San Francisco.

Like many prognosticators, I have my own thoughts on the upcoming NFL season. Unlike Peter King and Chris Berman, I don’t get paid a lot of money to write about them. Also, I didn’t finish my meandering thoughts until an hour and a half before kick-off, and I don’t have a skybox seat to tonight’s Saints/Vikings game. Since my job is not riding on any of these predictions coming to fruition, I am entitled to a few more liberties, which if true could become quite amusing.

Jack Del Rio will be fired from the Jaguars, and…
End up coaching the Raiders next season. Mark it down.

Tim Tebow will not have an impact on the Broncos this year
Despite clamoring from the fans, Josh McDaniels will keep Tebow on the sidelines. Besides, every draft class has to have an over-hyped quarterback who falters, and Tebow is it.

Chris Johnson will not break the single-season rushing record
Like previous 2,000 yard rushers, Chris Johnson will experience a dip in his numbers. Johnson won’t be catching any defenses by surprise. With the Titans’ weak receiving corp, defenses will be keying on Johnson.

Frank Gore will be the next running back to challenge 2,000 yards rushing
Gore benefits from playing six games against some of the weakest running defenses in the NFL. Alex Smith enters the season firmly entrenched as the starter for the first time in his career. Pro Bowl tight end Vernon Davis and wide receiver Michael Crabtree will stretch the field, giving Gore plenty of running room.

Mike Williams will win Comeback Player of the Year
Williams, one of the infamous wide receivers selected by Matt Millen and the Detroit Lions in the early 2000’s, is experiencing a career renaissance under the guidance of former USC coach Pete Carroll. Williams’ emergence caused Carroll to release T.J Houshmandzadeh. Given the lack of quality receivers on the Seahawks’ roster, Williams stands to be Matt Hasselbeck’s favorite target.

The Cincinnati Bengals will implode
A few years ago, this was as common of a prediction as a star player getting injured. Recently, however, the Bengals turned things around, including making the playoffs last year before being trounced by the Jets. The Terrell Owens acquisition will look brilliant for a game or two, but eventually he will become a distraction, just as he has everywhere else, save Buffalo. The implosion will not be enough to cost head coach Marvin Lewis his job, but will put him on the hot seat for next year.

The Jets will make the playoffs
Say what you will about the attitude, but the Jets have tremendous talent on both sides of the ball. The Jets will miss Thomas Jones and Leon Washington in the running game, but Shonn Greene will pick up a lot of the load, and LaDainian Tomlinson will contribute experience and a few touchdowns along the way. However, don’t expect the Jets to go as deep in the playoffs as last season.

Super Bowl XLV will not be a home game
Sorry Cowboys fans, but this will not be the first time in NFL history the Super Bowl will be played by the home team. Dallas will make the playoffs, but not the Super Bowl.

“Surprise” pick to be a dominant team
New England. The Patriots haven’t snuck up on a team since 2001, but with all the attention going to the Jets, and prognosticators predicting a downfall, look for Belicheck to bring back the “us against the world” mentality.

Biggest disappointment
Houston. The Texans have been the ‘chic’ pick to run the table and make the playoffs, but I don’t think they’re ready. Minnesota comes a close second, but everyone is picking the Vikings to falter from last year.

Curse to be broken
Jessica Simpson. Every NFL fan remembers the photos of Jessica wearing then-boyfriend Tony Romo’s jersey at Cowboys games, and how the Cowboys tanked that year. Yes, she’s dating a former player, but as you will see both of Eric Johnson’s former teams (San Francisco and New Orleans) will prosper this season. Both teams should pay her to stay away.

Curse to be continued
Wade Phillips. I like to call this the Flutie curse. If Phillips had not inexplicably (perhaps inebriatedly) selected Rob Johnson to start over Doug Flutie in the “Music City Miracle” game, perhaps he would not be cursed. But, like an all-nighter in Vegas, some things stay with you forever.

AFC Playoff teams
Indianapolis
San Diego
Baltimore
New England
Pittsburgh
New York

NFC Playoff teams
New Orleans
Green Bay
Dallas
San Francisco
New York
Atlanta

AFC Champion
Indianapolis

NFC Champion
New Orleans

Super Bowl Champion
New Orleans

Yes, we can all check back around mid-season and have a good laugh, or perhaps forward my column to ESPN.com. Enjoy the game!

It’s an exciting beginning to the 2010 NFL Season, with a repeat of the 2009 NFC Title game between the defending Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints and the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings return to the site of its bruising 31-28 overtime loss last January. After the beating Favre took at the hands of the Saints’ defense, it was questionable if Favre would return. Yet, after what has become his customary off-season circus, Brett Favre has returned for his 20th NFL Season. He faces a Saints defense that returns most of its starters, except linebacker Scott Fujita (now with the Cleveland Browns) and free safety Darren Sharper. There are several other matchups to watch in this game.

Vikings’ offense vs. Saints’ defense
Favre’s ankle still isn’t 100%, as was shown by his limited preseason action against the 49ers and Seahawks. Combining his ankle with the rust of not having played a full game in almost eight months, and his number one receiver Sidney Rice sidelined with a hip injury for the first six games of the season, and Favre is fighting an uphill battle. Favre will have to rely on veteran Bernard Berrian to pick up the slack from Rice’s absence. This matchup favors the Saints’ strong secondary, which still features cornerbacks Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter. To get adjusted to game speed and keep the Saints’ offense off the field, Favre will rely heavily on Adrian Peterson.

Jermon Bushrod vs. Jared Allen
In the off-season, the Saints traded former starting left tackle Jamaal Brown to the Redskins, anointing Jermon Bushrod the new starter. Bushrod had a rough start last year against the Cowboys, but settled down well enough to cement his spot in the starting rotation. Allen, the Vikings best pass rusher, comes into the game rested, and ready to chase Drew Brees and company around the field. Bushrod limited Allen to two tackles and no sacks in the NFC Championship game. Bushrod’s ability to win this matchup again will be crucial if the Saints are to win.

Saints’ wide receivers vs. Vikings’ secondary
The Saints’ receivers were crucial last year to the NFL’s top scoring offense (31.9 points per game). All receivers return, most notably the 6’-4” Marques Colston and Robert Meachum. The Vikings return its secondary starters from a passing defense that ranked 19th in the NFL last season (218.4 yards per game). However, starter Antoine Winfield missed six games last season, and in his 12th season isn’t getting any younger. Expect Brees to exploit the matchup between Colston and Winfield.

The Saints have not suffered any major off-season losses and have had the entire preseason to continue to gel as a unit. Although most of the offensive starters for the Vikings return, Favre has had only limited time to get back into regular-season form. I see the Saints offense putting on a show, while the Vikings offense struggles to get past its first act. Final score: Saints 35, Vikings 21.